Ideas, Effects, and Evidence: The Kellogg-Briand Pact and the Decline of Territorial Conquest

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“Married Again” by William Adler published in the Columbus Dispatch, 1928.

Note: this post originally appeared on the Duck of Minerva and can be found here.

In an op-ed published in the NY Times over the weekend, Oona A. Hathaway and Scott J. Shapiro argue that the Kellogg-Briand Pact of 1928… worked. While they concede that the Pact did not succeed in its aim to end all war, the Pact was “highly effective in ending the main reason countries had gone to war: conquest.” But was it? According to International Relations Twitter, not really.

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These reactions and the article itself are interesting for a few reasons. First, Altman seems to challenge the very idea that wars of conquest have significantly declined due to issues with COW’s Territorial Change data, the most important being omitting failed attempts to seize territory. If Hathaway and Shapiro’s study omits wars fought to gain territory but the conflict ended without territory changing hands, there may not be a puzzle needing explaining in the first place. That said, Hensel, Allison, and Khanani do account for attempts to forcibly acquire territory and link the decline of wars of conquest to territorial integrity norms.

However, even if we assume that conquest as a reason for war is falling by the wayside, factors other and perhaps more important than the Pact might explain the decline. As Mitchell tweets, the decline in wars of conquest have been chalked up to a number of factors including globalization, the character of liberalism and increases in the number of democratic states, regional and international treaties in which the territorial integrity norm is part, as well as rises in global foreign direct investment.

Third, Fazal suggests 1928 is the wrong starting point. Her research on state death suggests 1945 makes more sense. Zacher, too, argues the “acceptance stage” of the territorial integrity norm “began with the adoption of Article 2(4) in the UN Charter” in 1945.

What’s most striking, both in the article and the reactions, is the inattention to the evidence offered to substantiate the claim that the Pact was “highly effective” in stopping wars of conquest. Hathaway and Shapiro’s strongest rejoinder to potential critics offering other explanations is that those explanations are “incomplete because they tacitly assume the idea of the pact that might no longer makes right” (emphasis added). Here, Hathaway and Shapiro admit that to the extent that the treaty worked, it did so indirectly as an idea that framed the very way states understood the purpose of war.

Despite suggesting a constitutive effect of the Pact, the evidence offered simply details the decline in conquest which could then be attributed to other factors that Mitchell notes in her tweets above. It’s not clear to me how a decline in the number of wars of conquest per year, the decline in the average size of territory taken, or even the rare incidence of wars of conquest illustrate that state understandings of the purpose and aims of war changed.

To be fair, I haven’t read the book and as Hathaway wrote to Fazal on twitter, maybe I’ll be more persuaded by the extended form of the argument there. I want to be persuaded. But for that I’ll have to wait until September 12th.

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In the meantime, I’ll share what I will be looking for to see whether Hathaway and Shapiro are right.

  • Attention to the broader normative environment in which the territorial integrity norm emerged, was understood, and how the Kellogg-Briand Pact of 1928 fit into that environment: As Zacher suggests, territorial integrity became increasingly salient in the mid 19th-century. Was the pact the culmination of ideas regarding territorial integrity? A mid-point? What distinguished it from Article X of the Covenant of the League of Nations?
  • Debates among and between policy makers at the domestic and international level regarding the purpose of war and the degree of legitimacy afforded to territory as a war aim. How does the language vary over time?
  • References to the Kellogg-Briand Pact: to what degree did the institutionalization of the territorial integrity norm reference the Pact?
  • Perceptions about the effectiveness of the Pact: If policy makers and statesman understood the pact as naive, how did the idea of proscribing territorial aggression decouple from the general proscription against war?

In other words, I’m looking for greater attention to process versus outcome.

The Fragility of Democratic and Social Norms in the United States

Note: I follow domestic politics but by no means am I an expert in institutions, social movements, democracy, or American history.  However, I do study norms: their content, presumed effects, and their robustness. That’s what this post focuses on. 

On the eve of the election I had the pleasure of having dinner with two close friends. As we waited for red beans and rice to finish, conversation turned to the election and Donald J. Trump, current president-elect and soon to be 45th president of the United States.

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His very candidacy and knowledge that even if Hillary did win by a landslide that still 40-50 million people will have voted for him shakes me to my core. It’s not that I believed that racism, misogyny, sexual assault, and xenophobia were things of the past. It’s not that I believed that fear of muslims and change was only harbored by a remote fringe of the population or readers of the The CrusaderIt’s not even that I believed that a large majority of the 40-50 million who would vote for Trump were motivated by these feelings. What scared (now scares) me most is that norms of equality, non-discrimination, anti-racism, compassion, empathy, smooth and peaceful transfers of power, and appraising policies based on facts alongside beliefs were too weak to withstand the storm of Donald J. Trump.  Continue reading

Can we measure trends in violence against health care in armed conflict and what good what it do? Spoiler: I’m not sure.

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A body at the site of an airstrike on Monday at Abs Hospital in Yemen’s northern Hajjah Province. Photo by Reuters. Used in the following NYTimes article: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/16/world/middleeast/yemen-doctors-without-borders-hospital-bombing.html

If you think you’ve been reading a lot about violence against health care facilities and health care workers in recent years, you have. Between January 2012 and December 2014, the ICRC documented 2,398 incidents of violence against health care in 11 countries. In Pakistan, the fight against Polio has suffered setbacks as a suicide attack targeted a vaccination centre in Quetta in January and a drive-by killed three vaccination workers in April. Last March, ISIS attacked the Ibn Sina Hospital in Sirte, Libya and abducted 20 aid workers. In Syria, the healthcare system has been systematically attacked and depleted: in the space of a week, 6 hospitals have been bombed in and around Aleppo. And just two days ago, a hospital supported by Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) was struck by airstrikes by the Saudi-led coalition. Overall, some attacks or strikes have been (questionable) mistakes while others read like deliberate acts of violence meant to punish and intimidate adversaries as well as the civilian population in dire need of care in addition to food, water, shelter, and respite from violence.

Is the targeting of hospitals and medical workers the “new normal“? Or are we just ‘seeing’ them more? In other words, does the increased visibility – namely increased news coverage – of attacks against health care represent a new, increasing, and disturbing trend in armed conflict or are we just more attune to this particular form of violence?  Continue reading

Hello World!

Welcome to my blog! This is just a formatting post so I can figure out best how to structure my website. In the near future I’ll be posting frequently on issues relating to human security, specifically the rules of war, civilian immunity, civil war, and international relations more generally.

Visit again soon and please don’t hesitate to comment and engage.

All the best,

Ardeshir